For the second consecutive year, the world’s premier economic forum is taking place without a key Eurasian transport player—Georgia. Just like last year, Tbilisi was not represented at the summit. Meanwhile, the ruling Georgian Dream party is crafting a new narrative for its domestic audience: “Davos is not a priority for Georgia.”
Hearing such statements is strange, to say the least. After all, the entire business model of the modern Georgian state since the time of its second president, Eduard Shevardnadze, has rested on a) its transit advantage and b) its aspiration to build a democratic state based on the Western European model. The former, the pragmatic part, is about engaging major partners in the country’s economic potential; the latter is about building a loyal circle of friends and partners with whom we share common values.
What do we have to show for the 14-year rule of “Georgian Dream”? Western partners are becoming disillusioned with the country’s democratic aspirations. Meanwhile, the new geopolitical landscape risks leaving Georgia sidelined even when it comes to transit agreements.
In Davos, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev voiced what we so dreaded hearing:
It is true that cargo is currently transported through the territory of Georgia, but the day will come when Armenian cargo will pass directly through the territory of Azerbaijan—and that day is not far off.
In Davos, it emerged that Yerevan has already sent a request to Baku regarding the transit of goods from Armenia to Russia. Does this mean that Tbilisi will indeed be left out of the game? The Georgian authorities have yet to provide an answer to this question.
But what we already know: on the sidelines of the Davos summit, President Aliyev thanked his American counterpart and accepted an invitation to Trump’s “Peace Council.” This body was established to oversee peace in the Gaza Strip, but, according to observers, it could turn out to be a rival to the UN. Out of the three South Caucasus countries, Georgia was the only one that did not receive an invitation.
Today, official Tbilisi is conducting a complete overhaul of its current foreign policy course, without offering any coherent alternative in return. It is obvious that in Donald Trump’s new world, where the strongest win, leaders like Aliyev are more welcome. But where is Georgia looking for its new niche—having lost its friends in Brussels and failed to find support in the new US administration, which “Georgian Dream” had bet on?
Analyzing Georgia’s policy, a well-known parable comes to mind: when God was distributing land to the nations, everyone arrived on time, and each got their own country, but the Georgian was late—they say he overslept. When he arrived, there was no land left, and he explained his lateness by saying he was hosting guests, treating them to wine, and praising God. The Lord liked this answer and gave the Georgian the corner He had been keeping for Himself: a land of mountains and valleys, rivers and the sea—small in size but full of beauty. That is how the Georgian got blessed Georgia.
It seems the “Georgian Dream” authorities are following this parable: while the world is being divided into new lands, the Georgian sleeps, hoping to stumble into paradise. But it is obvious that the Gods are not the same, and there is no longer enough land to go around.
